Commercial Construction Is Predicted to Decline Based on AIA Report
It’s been a trying year as the coronavirus continues to interrupt the market, different industries, institutions, and governments of the world. Providers of concrete forms, plywood for sale, or the construction industry, as a whole, is not exempted from the effects of the virus and recent reports are reflecting this impact, including one notable report from a renowned organization in the engineering and construction community.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported that overall construction spending (engineering costs, materials like concrete shoring, labor, etc.) was down for the first time in nearly 10 years on commercial buildings in 2020. Along with this report, commercial construction is expected to continue this dip trend all the way into 2021. This has major implications for commercial segments of the market.
Forecasts for Different Segments
Construction spending is often times used as an indicator in assessing the health and state of the economy. As state and local budgets continue to shrink and freeze for the 5th month in a row, it’s clear that the virus has caused serious damage by halting, delaying, or even cancelling many new projects or repairs in infrastructure and commercial construction. Some sections of the commercial industry were due for a pullback already, but COVID-19 has accelerated this decline in extreme ways.
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel had some interesting percentage predictions for just how much decline we can expect in different areas of commercial construction. While these are just forecasts, many of these are already proving to be true as the US sits with no sight in end for the pandemic.
Here are the different segments and percentage changes forecasted by the AIA.
The least surprising segment is the predicted decline in office buildings. The coronavirus caused most businesses to adapt and allow people to work from home. Before the coronavirus ever hit, there were natural declines as teleworking increased in popularity.
COVID-19 has only accelerated the switch many businesses will make from corporate office buildings to remote and virtual work environments. There is a prediction of almost a 20% decline over the next year.
Another area seeing decreased spend is in retail stores like malls and shopping centers. Again, it was already bad before the coronavirus due to the boom of online shopping, but 2020 has confirmed a significant decline is here to stay for this segment. An approximate 8% decline is anticipated for 2020 with another 7% in 2021.
The hospitality industry was already in a state of decline due to the rise of websites like Airbnb. But with travel being put on hold and with fewer and fewer people choosing to not stay in resorts and hotels, this sector of commercial construction has plunged heavily and is expected to continue by a whopping 35%+ over the next 18 months. The hotel and hospitality construction landscape has been impacted most severely when compared to others.
Colleges, public schools, and private schools were up in spending in 2019. Many educational buildings were expanding and being built up until the coronavirus halted plans. A 7% decline is expected and a modest 1% for 2021.
The only sector expected to increase in spending over the next are healthcare related projects. Hospitals, medical centers, labs, and pharmaceutical companies need space more than ever, whether the coronavirus is or isn’t to blame. 5% of an increase is expected into 2021.
Forming America Helps Firms Adapt
These reports and trends are being felt by everyone and can have serious impacts on your business. In light of these difficult times there is still work and projects continuing. The landscape of the construction industry may be in decline, but there are still many opportunities for contractors and companies.
Rest assured that Forming America can meet all your construction supply needs. We’re helping firms adapt and continue business by providing shoring equipment, concrete forms, and other supplies. Give us a call today so we can help you finish your current project and get you to the next one!